Indian Ticker : Choose Right Stocks that Ticks Money

WEEKLY GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS FOE WEEK ENDING 25^TH MARCH THE WEEK ENDING 18^TH MARCH WAS A HIGHLY NEGATIVE WEEK FOR INDIAN INDICES AS NIFTY AFTER HAVING STARTED THE WEEK FROM THE HIGHEST POINT OF THE WEEK AT 5537 FELL TO CLOSE THE WEEK NEAR THE LOWEST POINT OF 5373. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW OF 5373 WHICH WAS ALSO THE EARLIER LOWS OF 1^ST MARCH & 15^TH MARCH, THIS WAS BREACHED ON FRIDAY 18^TH MARCH TO MAKE A NEW INTRADAY LOW OF 5266, BUT THE LAST 30 MINUTES AVERAGING BROUGHT IT UP TO CLOSE EXACTLY AT 5373 WITH A LOWER CLOSING COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS WEEKS CLOSING OF 5445. SO, NIFTY MADE A LOWER HIGH, LOWER LOW AND LOWER CLOSING FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE WEEKS IN A ROW . ALTHOUGH NIFTY IS STILL ABOVE THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 5353 ON THE LINE JOINING 7^TH MARCH LOWS OF 5478 & 15^TH MARCH LOWS OF 5373 , YET IT LOOKS CERTAIN FOR NIFTY TO BREACH THIS LOW AROUND 5353 TO SLIDE FURTHER DOWN TO TEST THE MAKE OR BREAK SUPPORT LINE AROUND 5303 TO 5323 ZONE COMING FROM THE FEBRUARY LOWS OF 5177 AND 5232.

A BREACH AND CLOSE BELOW THIS MAKE OR BREAK SUPPORT LINE AROUND THE NIFTY ZONE OF 5303 TO 5323 WILL TRIGGER THE BREACH OF THE NECK LINE OF THE DOUBLE HEAD FORMATION MADE BY NIFTY WITH TWIN HIGHS AT 5599 ON 18^TH FEB & 5608 ON 4^TH MARCH . SO, IF INDIAN MARKETS HAVE TO SURVIVE THEN THIS MAKE OR BREAK SUPPORT LINE AROUND 5300 TO 5320 HAS TO BE PROTECTED BY THE BULLS FAILING WHICH FEBRUARY LOWS OF 5232 FOLLOWED BY 5177 WILL ONLY ACT AS DRINKS BREAKS FOR THE OVERWHELMED BEARS TO TAKE NIFTY TOWARDS PSYCHOLOGICAL 5000 FOLLOWED BY 4800 IN NEXT FEW WEEKS. THE WAY THINGS ARE SHAPING UP ONE AFTER THE OTHER , UNLESS BULLS UNITE AND TAKE SOLID REARGUARD ACTION TO PREVENT NIFTY FROM BREACHING 5353 INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY THE ALL IMPORTANT ZONE BETWEEN 5323 TO 5303, ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FEBRUARY LOWS OF 5252 & 5177 BEING BREACHED BY NIFTY BEFORE THE EXPIRY ON 31^ST MARCH TO OBEY THE DIRECTIONS SHOWN BY THE MONTHLY BEARISH ENGULFING CANDLE OF JANUARY 2011.

NEGATIVE NEWS ONE AFTER THE OTHER EMANATING IN THE FORM OF DUBAI DEBACLE, EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN DEBT, GREECE, EGYPT, LIBYA, BAHRAIN, SOUTH ARABIA & TO TOP IT UP THE JAPANESE DISASTER DO NOT SPEAK WELL OF THE STOCK MARKET CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM AND AS FAR AS INDIAN MARKETS ARE CONCERNED THESE EXTERNAL DAMPENERS COUPLED WITH THE INTERNAL POLITICAL CRISES ARISING OUT OF WIKILEAKS, 2G SCAM & PLANTED STORIES ON INDEX HEAVIES LIKE RELIANCE D- 6 GAS MYSTERY THAT HAS BEEN REPEATED ALMOST EVERY MONTH AFTER EVERY RISE IN RELIANCE  SHARE TIPS FREE TRIAL PRICES, ARE CLEAR POINTERS TO A SUBDUED MARKET CONDITION IN COMING DAYS . MOST LIKELY MARCH MONTH COULD SEE FEBRUARY MONTH LOWS OF 5232 & 5177 BEING BREACHED BEFORE ANY NOTICEABLE RETRACEMENT BOUNCE CAN TAKE NIFTY ABOVE THE UPPER SURESHOT MCX TIPS TRADING BAND NOW HAVING SLIPPED TOWARDS THE 5500 LEVELS.

FIBONACCI FOR FIBONACCI CALCULATIONS, WE HAVE CONFINED OUR STUDIES FROM THE LEVELS OF THE 2^ND WAVE LOWS EITHER FROM 3^RD NOV 2009 LOW OF 4540 TILL DIWALI HIGH OF 6338 OR FROM THE 13^TH JULY 2009 LOW OF 3919 TILL DIWALI HIGH OF 6338. IN THE FIRST CASE THE 61.8% RETRACEMENT COMES TILL 5227 AND 78.6 % COMES TILL 4925. IN THE FIRST CASE THE 61.8% AT 5227 HAS ALREADY BEEN BREACHED TO MAKE A NEW LOW OF 5177 AND NIFTY IN CASE BREACHES 5177 THEN IT CAN FALL TILL THE NEXT 78.6% LEVEL TILL 4925. IN CASE OF 2^ND WAVE HAVING BEEN COMPLETED AT THE 13 JULY 2009 LOW OF 3919, THEN FROM THE DIWALI HIGH OF 6338, 50% SUPPORT COMES AT 5128, 61.8% COMES TILL 4843.

THIS “C” DOWN LEG HAS COMPLETED 3 SUB WAVES AND WE ARE NOW IN THE 4^TH SUB WAVE 3, 3, 5 FLAT BETWEEN THE LOW OF 5177, HIGH OF 5599 AND LOW OF 5233 & 5608 MADE ON FRIDAY 4^TH MARCH. OUT OF THIS 3, 3, 5 FLAT 1^ST 3 UP SUB LEGS WENT FROM A LOW OF 5177 TILL THE HIGH OF 5599, THE 2^ND 3 CAME DOWN TILL FRIDAYS LOW OF 5233 AND THE FINAL UP 5 OF THE FLAT HAS EITHER BEEN COMPLETED AT THE FRIDAYS HIGH OF 5608 OR MAY TAKE NIFTY A BIT MORE AFTER WHICH IT MAY COMMENCE THE FINAL 5^TH DOWN SUB LEG OF “C” OF “ABC” ZIGZAG TOWARDS 5000 OR EVEN 4800. HOWEVER IF ONE HAS A CLOSER LOOK AT THE CHARTS OF LOWER TIME FRAMES OF 1 HOUR TILL 5 MINUTES CHARTS, IT INDICATES THAT THE “ABC” ZIGZAG IS OVER AT THE LOW OF 5177 AND THE 86.7% CORRECTION FROM THE HIGH OF 5599 TILL FRIDAYS LOW OF 5233 WAS THE RETRACEMENT TO THE UP MOVE FROM LOW OF 5177 TILL 5599 & AFTER MAKING A LOWER LOW AT 5232 FRESH UP MOVE HAS STARTED WHICH CAN ONLY BE CONFIRMED AFTER A DECISIVE CLOSE ABOVE “B” WAVE HIGH OF 6181.

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