Shardul Kulkarni, Sr Technical Analyst, Angel Broking shares his stock picks for the day.

Elecon: Here the recommendation is the is to buy for its breakout signal with a target price of Rs 87.50 and a stop loss at Rs 72.30. The stock has given a breakout from a bullish flag pattern at Rs 76.25 with huge volumes. In addition, we are observing a bullish crossover of 5 & 20 EMA on the weekly charts. Buy this stock on a decline up to Rs 75.40 for a target of Rs 87.50 in the coming 2-3 weeks.

Adani Power: For this stock too the recommendation is buy as there is an indication of an upmove with a target price of Rs 126 and a stoploss at Rs 106.50. The stock is continuously taking a support near its multiple support zone of Rs 106. The weekly chart shows a positive crossover in RSI-smoothened oscillator, suggesting a positive up move is likely to continue. Buy this stock on decline up to Rs 109.50 for a target of Rs 126 in coming 2-3 weeks.

CEAT: Kulkarni recommends a buy for this tyre company for its breakut signal with a target price of Rs 131.80 and stop loss at Rs 108. On the daily chart, the stock is forming a bullish flag pattern which will be confirmed above Rs 114.80. The momentum oscillators on the weekly chart suggest possibility of breakout. We advise buying the stock only aboveRs 114.80 for a target of Rs 31.80 in the coming 3-4 weeks.

Polaris Software: the recommendation for this stock is sell on negative bias with a target price of Rs 161 and a stop loss at Rs 174. The stock is continuously moving in a lower-top lower-bottom cycle and is trading well below its major moving averages. The momentum oscillators on the weekly chart are negatively poised. Sell this stock only below Rs 170.25 for a target of Rs 161 in the coming 2 -3 weeks.

Zee Entertainment: Here also the recommendation is to sell the stock since the trend is of breakdown with a target price of Rs Rs 115.80 and a stop loss at Rs 125.50. The stock has given a breakdown from an upward sloping trend line at Rs 124. The momentum oscillators on the weekly chart suggest a possibility of a downward move in coming trading sessions. We advise selling the stock only below Rs 122.70 for a target of Rs 115.80 in the coming weeks.

The key domestic indices are likely to witness a negative opening, as most of the major Asian indices were seen trading on a weak note amidst rising concerns over US economic health.

The US manufacturing and consumer confidence data showed a declining trend fueling concerns that demand for the Asian region”s exports may get hampered. The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index declined 0.5% to 473.71 with three stocks declining against each that rose. The Taiwan Weighted, Seoul Composite and Straits Times declined by 0.84%, 0.76% and 0.20%, respectively.

However, the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng were showing mild gains of 0.17% and 0.19%, respectively. In the domestic arena, the markets are likely to open weak as the SGX Nifty was trading 0.46% lower, pointing towards a slow start. The Realty, Metal, Auto and Banking space will be in focus during today”s trade.

regards,

Commoditytipsexpert Team

However, the benchmark Nifty faced resistance near the 5,630 mark and was pulled back thereon. It was dragged near the 5,560 mark as the Metal and Auto space faced selling pressure. As the day progressed the market entered a narrow range and was seen trading sideways for the rest of the session.

The outstanding results from tech major TCS failed to uphold the market sentiment. However, the stock closed with more than 2% gains. Further, the lower than average monsoon figures further weighed on the domestic sentiment. The participants were looking forward to the European Banks” stress test results.

The BSE Sensex closed at 18,561.92 down by 56.28 points or by 0.30% and NSE Nifty closed at 5,581.10, lower by 18.70 points or by 0.33%. The BSE Midcap was at 7,006.75 lower by 7.83 points or by 0.11%, whereas the BSE SmallCap closed at 8,363.22, increasing by 6.83 points or by 0.08%. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 19,619.65 and intraday low of 18,513.22.

On Friday, the U.S. markets closed on a positive note after hovering around the baseline for the majority of the session. The warnings from Moody and Standard & Poor to downgrade U.S. credit rating in case they fail to increase debt ceiling on time, has maintained pressure on the sentiment.

The stress test results had limited impact on the market sentiment as it seemed to be already discounted as it is perceived to use unrealistically favorable loss assumptions. The stress tests showed 82 out of 90 banks passed. The results showed five Spanish banks, two Greek banks and one Austrian bank failing the test.

While the test did show some failures, many are already discounting the tests as using unrealistically favorable loss assumptions. Among the economic data released, the Empire Manufacturing Survey disappointed the market, reading of -3.8 for July as compared the consensus among economists of 1.0.

Further, the overall CPI for June decreased by 0.2%, which exceeded street estimates of 0.1% decrease. Core CPI increased by 0.3%, which is also higher than the consensus of 0.2% increase. Energy (+2.6%) and Tech (+1.0%) were the major gainers during the session.

In the major indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed with a gain of 42.61 or 0.34% at 12,479.73 while NASDAQ index finished up by 27.13 points or 0.98% to 2,789.80. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed higher by 7.27 points or 0.56% to 1,316.14.

The FIIs on Friday stood as net buyer in both equity and debt. Gross equity purchased stood at Rs. 2405.10 crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs. 1685.80 crore, while the gross equity sold stood at Rs. 2067.50 crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs. 1489.70 crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity and debt reported were Rs. 337.60 crore and Rs. 196.20 crore, respectively.

Top traded volumes on NSE Nifty – IDFC 7500481, Power Grid 4636585, TCS 3639850 and Reliance Industries 2495602.

On BSE, total number of shares traded was 21.41 crore and total turnover stood at Rs. 2,098.74 crore. On NSE, total number of shares traded was 47.20 crore and total turnover stood at Rs. 8815.95 crore. In the NSE Futures and Options segment, total number of contracts traded in index futures was 435152 with a total turnover of Rs. 11385.21 crore.

Along with this total number of contracts traded in stock futures were 383952 with a total turnover of Rs. 11176.99 crore. Total numbers of contracts for index options were 2750631 with a total turnover of Rs. 77735.98 crore and total number of contracts for stock options was 117817 with a total turnover of Rs. 3459.33 crore.

As for the United States, the data will start at 12:30 with the weekly jobless claims after they rose unexpectedly last week to 429 thousand. While at 13:45 GMT the Chicago PMI for June is due and expected to slow to 54.0 from 56.6.

The natural gas markets fell again this week, showing the range bound nature of this market as traders have been buying at $4-$4.20 and selling in the $4.80-$5 area. The lower end of that band is being tested right now, and as long as we are above the $4 mark, seems that a longer-term trader could go ahead and buy, with stops protecting them of course. Selling here would be almost impossible because of the strength of the support area.

Natural gas prices extended the drop last week despite expectations of warmer weather conditions, which pushed natural gas prices higher earlier in the week, however, the EIA report showed natural gas inventories rose above expectations, which weighed down on natural gas prices and pushed prices lower.

Nonetheless, we should expect natural gas prices to rise during this upcoming week, as expectations signal that temperatures will be above than average for this time of the year, which could increase demand for power-plant fuel.

Aug crude oil prices this morning are trading down sharply by -$2.41 a barrel and Aug gasoline is -7.32 cents per gallon.  Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday moved higher after Greek Prime Minister Papandreou won a vote of confidence, which reduced concern that Greece’s debt crisis would worsen and after weekly gasoline supplies unexpectedly declined: CLQ11 +$1.24, RBQ11 +9.91.

Bullish factors included (1) reduced concern that the European debt crisis will worsen and threaten economic growth after Greek Prime Minister Papandreou won a vote of confidence, and (2) the unexpected fall in weekly DOE gasoline inventories (-464,000 bbl versus expectations of a +1.0 million bbl build).

Bearish factors included (1) weakened fuel demand after US gasoline demand in the week ended Jun 17 fell -0.5% to 9.319 million barrels a day, and (2) the larger-than-expected increase in the refinery capacity rate to its highest level in 10 months, which bodes well for future increases in gasoline and distillate products (+3.1 to 89.2% versus expectations of +0.5 to 86.6%).

In 1963, the Commodity tips Research Bureau developed a computerized trading system for the purpose of removing the emotional human element from market forecasting. Since then, countless trading programs, timing theories, and techniques have been designed and popularized by an even wider universe of individuals and companies for the purpose of “beating” the futures market. Yet, today, CRB’s Trends in Futures remains one of the oldest and most respected technical daily market letters.

The Commodity Research Bureau has been leading the world in commodities research and analysis since 1934.  Based in Chicago, Illinois, the firm has been the innovator of the CRB Indices, as well as the publisher of the CRB Yearbook, Encyclopedia, CRB Price Charts, Trends in Futures and Futures Market Service newsletters.

Trends in Futures trading system analyzes four different technical studies to categorize markets as trending up, sideways, or down. These four studies are a combination of moving average, price volatility, market momentum, and various time cycles. Support and resistance levels are recalculated daily and serve as “stops” when the market is in a trend phase and mark the breakout levels for new up or down trends when markets are in a sideways mode.

A decoupling from risk appetite trends that saw crude deviate from the S&P 500 for second day played in crude’s favor this time around. The WTI contract managed to advance despite a selloff on Wall Street as official DOE inventory figures revealed a much larger drop in inventories (-1711k barrels) last week than had been anticipated by preliminary API figures released on the previous day (-81k barrels).

Looking ahead, the absence of energy-specific economic data for the remainder of the week ought to see the link between crude and the S&P 500 reestablished, which argues for a bearish bias at the moment as futures contracts tracking the US benchmark stock index sink to the tune of 0.5 percent ahead of the opening bell in New York. Broadly speaking, this makes sense. Chinese and Euro Zone PMI readings showed continued slowdown in both regions while yesterday’s FOMC announcement painted a stark picture of lackluster performance coupled with the absence of further stimulus. Plainly put, all three of the world’s top economic growth engines now look worse than before, pointing to a weak second half of 2011 for oil demand.

The import-duty on fully-built vehicles, at present, is 60% but taking other levies into account, – counter vailing duty (CVT), VAT etc- total rises up to 110%. The issue has received a mixed response from the industry. While SIAM and most local players, including foreign companies who”ve set up manufacturing units in India, believe that lowering the duty would inhibit the growth of the automobile industry in India as there would be no incentive to invest heavily in setting up manufacturing facilities; luxury car makers like AUDI, BMW and Mercedes are lobbying to get the tariffs reduced.

On the corporate front, Anglo-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto Friday said it would buy up the remaining shares in Riversdale Mining, after acquiring Tata Steel’s stake in the Africa-focused company.

Maruti Suzuki India (MSI) gained over 3% in morning trade on the bourses today after the 13-day strike at its Manesar plant was called off late yesterday.

The Market breadth, indicating the overall strength of the market, was weak. On BSE out of total shares traded 2721 , shares advanced were 1073 while 1524 shares declined and 124 were unchanged.

The top losers of the BSE Sensex pack were Infosys Ltd. (Rs. 2743.45,-2.04%), Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. (Rs. 1130.60,-1.83%), Oil And Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. (Rs. 265.35,-1.45%), Hindalco Industries Ltd. (Rs. 171.00,-1.30%), Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. (Rs. 650.20,-1.22%), among others.

In BSE, BSE_IT index was at 5832.98 down by -101.04 points or by -1.7%. Infosys Ltd. (Rs. 2743.00,-2.05%), HCL Technologies Ltd. (Rs. 479.10,-1.92%), Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. (Rs. 1130.60,-1.83%), MphasiS Ltd. (Rs. 448.10,-0.73%), Oracle Financial Services Software Ltd. (Rs. 2245.10,-0.64%),.

In BSE, BSE Oil&Gas index was at 9024.7 down by -92.35 points or by -1.01%. Oil And Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. (Rs. 265.40,-1.43%), Reliance Industries Ltd. (Rs. 877.70,-1.16%), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (Rs. 623.05,-1.06%), Petronet LNG Ltd. (Rs. 142.05,-0.87%), Cairn India Ltd. (Rs. 330.45,-0.71%),.

The leading Asian bourses are trading negative as Hang Seng, Nikkei 225 and Shanghai Composite trading up by 0.53%, 0.64% and 0.39% respectively.

All the headlines were stating that the RBI raised the repo-rate and the reverse repo, but it seems evertone forgot that the bank had stated in its policy paper at the start of the yeat that repo and repo rate will maintain the difference of 100 basis points. Which essentially means that each time the RBI decision will affect both the rates simultaneously. Moving forward, we bring to you today’s recommendation from the experts on different stock.

Rakesh Mehta, Research Analyst, Fullerton Securities and Wealth Advisors, recommended the following stocks in Economic Times.

Idea: The recommendation on this telecom stock is buy with a target price of Rs 80 and a stop loss at Rs 72. The stock tips has given a positive breakout above Rs 70 after forming a strong base at around Rs 60. It is trading above its important moving averages while the weekly MACD has moved in to positive territory, indicating strong momentum.

Punj Llyod: The recommendation on this stock is buy with a target price of Rs 80 and a stop loss at Rs 66. The stock is showing good resilience at lwer levels. A strong intermediary base around Rs 60 provides support to the stock. All momentum indicators are in the oversold zone. Which indicates there is limited downside.

Bombay Dying: Mehta’s recommendation on this stock is buy with a target price of Rs 355 and a stop loss at Rs 400. The stock currently trades at a lower band of the long-term symmetrical triangle formed on weekly charts. Momentum indicators are in teh oversold zone an the stock may retrace back to the upper band of the triangle. The target is Rs 400.

Godrej Idustries: Mehta recommends this stock as buy with a target price of Rs 188 and a stop loss at Rs 225. The positive momentum build in the stock around the important support of Rs 150 can take the stock to around Rs 225 in the near term. Consistent close above the vital long-term moving averages has improved the probability of momentum sustainability.

Bank of Baroda: Here the recommendation on this stock is sell with a target price of Rs 900 and a stop loss at Rs 800. On Weekly charts, the MACD has turned negative after a very long time signaling, that the momentum is subsiding. The time is ripe for some profit-booking. The immediate resistance lies around Rs 900. Which could act as stoploss.

Meanwhile, for intraday trading tips for  Sharegyan recommeds Aurobindo Pharma to sell below Rs 174 with a target price of Rs 169 and a stop loss at Rs 177.

The website, technicalanalysisofstocks, recommends to buy the stock of DS Kulkarni Developers for a target price of Rs 64 and a stop loss at Rs 56.

Firstpost have picked Tata Steel, SBI, REC, Petronet, Pantaloon, Hero Honda, Bajaj Auto, Lupin and Punj Loyd as the 9 stocks of the day.

Regards,

commoditytipsexpert team

Nifty intraday tips for tomorrow opened with a downward gap of 12-13 points on weak global cues despite the fact that Nifty had fallen sharply on Friday also losing nearly 100 points. Nifty drifted lower on sustained selling & high voltage political uncertainity to touch an intra day low of 5479 where Nifty had entered oversold zones with positive divergences which lifted Nifty by nearly 60 points to an intra day high of 5542 before settling at 5533 about 16 points above the previous close.

As far as, extreme short term charts are concerned, Nifty almost touched the bearish targets of 5675 after it had risen sharply from 5328 to 5600 in last few days. Although Nifty can test the target of 5465 but with development of positive divergences in hourly charts Nifty may bounce back from the given levels to retest 5600-5625. If successful Nifty can test the next level of 5775-5800 in coming days. On the other hand, Nifty has strong support in 5300-5350 in region & if this support is not held Nifty can break certain supports to touch 5000 level in coming days.

As far as bar reversal in Daily charts are concerned, stocks like Nifty, Nifty Futures, ICICI Bank, HDFC, Infosys, Rel Capital, Reliance Ind., Bharti Airtel, LIC Housing have given “Upward Bar Reversal” while Satyam Computer, Biocon, Indusind, ECLerx Services, Sterling Biocon, Shipping Corp., Edel Weiss, MIC Electonics etc. have given “Downward Bar Reversal”. Stocks like MNDTV, Jai Balaji, UTV Software, Sujana Tower, TV Today, Berger Paint, UFlex, Prime Focus, Raymonds, Ucal Fuel have shown  spurt during the day with unusually high volumes.

Sector wise, most of the stocks like NDTV, Sujana Tower, Sun TV, U Flex, Meghmani, Godrej Consumer, Pidilite Inds., HDIL, Gulf Oil, EKC etc. were among the top gainers of the day,  to close in positive territory whereas stocks like Kohinoor, Wespun India, Texmopipes,  ADSL, Zicom, Koutons, Daawat, Indowind etc. attracted profit booking at higher levels & closed in red territory. As far as, A/D data is concerned it was in favor of bears in the ratio of 3:4 with 614 advances & 821 declines during the day.

In nutshell, Nifty almost achieved the target of 5465 which was given after Nifty had moved up sharply from 5328 to 5605 in last few days. Now Nifty has chance to touch 5450-5465 before staging any recovery. Nifty faces strong resistance at 5600-5625 which if cleared will take Nifty to 5775-5800. On the other hand, if Nifty fails to hold the support at 5450, it will be heading for lower targets of 5300 in coming days. The best strategy is to be highly stock & sector specific as many stocks & sectors are likely to move in opposite directions.

Expected Weekly Movement -In totality, keeping all the planetary configuration, bullish and bearish aspects in mind, Jupiter-Uranus conjunction on 04th January 2011 was the beginning of change of trend when Nifty touched an Intraday High of 6181 and Sensex touched 20664 (On 03rd January 2011).The decline continued for a month and short term trend reversal came with conjunction of Venus with Pluto in Sagittarius. Market remained sideways after that for a month or so and again a bounce came as soon as Sun conjunction with Uranus in Pieces took place on 21st March 2011 when Nifty was 5348 and Sensex was 17792.Jupiter opposition on 28th March coupled with Sun-Pluto aspect applied brakes to the sharp rally which took place between 21st – 28th March.

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The US sentiment was negated after the country’s manufacturing data grew at the slowest pace in more than a year and the hiring rate failed to meet street expectations, fueling concerns over the slowdown in global economic recovery.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index plunged by 1.5% to 134.73, with all of the 10 industry groups that make up the index declining. The Nikkei225 fell by 1.55% at 9,568.87, while the Shanghai Composite declined by 0.91% at 2,718.62. The Chinese stocks plunged concerns rose that the country’s plan to contain property prices through a record low-cost home building programme may give rise to hefty borrowings by the local government leading to bank failures.

The Seoul Composite traded lower by 0.96%, while the Taiwan Weighted traded down by 0.45%. In the domestic arena, the markets are likely to follow the route of global counterpart and trade on a weak sentiment. The Banking, Realty and Capital Goods space will be in focus during today’s trade.

Today, sureshot nifty tips will face a resistance near 5,450 level and will have a support near the 5,510 mark.

Previous Session

On Wednesday, the domestic bourses carried forward the upward momentum, marking its second straight sessions of winning streak.

After witnessing a positive start, the benchmark indices gained further momentum and journeyed northwards. Soon the gains were pared off and the broader indices were seen dragging near the baseline. However, the market managed to stay in the positive terrain and started trading in a narrow range.

The rise in country’s export data, gave support to the market and the benchmarks were seen rallying during the final hour taking support from the Capital Goods space. However, the benchmark Nifty failed to cross the 5,600 level which acted as a major resistance during today’s trade.

The BSE Sensex closed at 18,608.81 up by 105.53 points or by 0.57% and the NSE Nifty closed at 5,592.15, higher by 31.85 points or by 0.57%. The BSE Midcap was at 6,966.85, higher by 56.61 points or 0.82% and the BSE SmallCap closed at 8,307.65, increasing by 71.93 points or by 0.87%. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 18,636.12 and intraday low of 18,514.66.

On Wednesday, the U.S. markets closed on a bearish note as the broader indices shed off more than 2% each amidst disappointing economic data. The morning sentiment was severely hammered after the ADP Employment report and ISM Index failed to meet market expectations.

The mood was further dampened after the greenback was seen gaining strength against the euro which slipped following the Greek debt downgrade by Moody’s. The Financial stocks were the major losers during the session, declining by 3.5%. Banking stocks including Wells Fargo and Bank of America together with the regional banks like Sun Trust Banks and Regions Financial faced hefty sell-offs.

NIFTY FUTURE

Nifty Future Closing : 5590
Watch carefully today’s nifty magical figure… 5600
Buy Nifty Future above magical figure for upside
First target…   5625 and above it
Second target…    5650
and crosses over both it will come…    5674
Sell Nifty Future, if Nifty is running below magical figure then your downside
First target…    5553
Second target… 5520
Third target… 5485

BANK NIFTY FUTURE

(Closing - 10948)
Today’s magical figure…10990

Buy it above magical figure upside
First target … 11080
Second target … 11150
Third target…    11200
Sell it if running below Magical figure for downside:
First target …10860
Second target…10800
Third target … 10730

ICICI BANK FUTURE

(Closing - 1076)

Today’s magical figure… 1084
Buy it above magical figure upside targets
First target … 1096
Second target … 1107
Third target … 1121
Sell it running below Magical figure for downside:
First arget … 1065
Second target …1055
Third target … 1041

REL INFRA FUTURE

(Closing - 583)
Today’s magical figure… 585
Buy it above magical figure upside targets
First target … 595
Second target … 605

Third target … 614
Sell it running below Magical figure for downside:
First arget … 573
Second target …561
Third target … 550

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WEEKLY GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS FOE WEEK ENDING 25^TH MARCH THE WEEK ENDING 18^TH MARCH WAS A HIGHLY NEGATIVE WEEK FOR INDIAN INDICES AS NIFTY AFTER HAVING STARTED THE WEEK FROM THE HIGHEST POINT OF THE WEEK AT 5537 FELL TO CLOSE THE WEEK NEAR THE LOWEST POINT OF 5373. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW OF 5373 WHICH WAS ALSO THE EARLIER LOWS OF 1^ST MARCH & 15^TH MARCH, THIS WAS BREACHED ON FRIDAY 18^TH MARCH TO MAKE A NEW INTRADAY LOW OF 5266, BUT THE LAST 30 MINUTES AVERAGING BROUGHT IT UP TO CLOSE EXACTLY AT 5373 WITH A LOWER CLOSING COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS WEEKS CLOSING OF 5445. SO, NIFTY MADE A LOWER HIGH, LOWER LOW AND LOWER CLOSING FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE WEEKS IN A ROW . ALTHOUGH NIFTY IS STILL ABOVE THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 5353 ON THE LINE JOINING 7^TH MARCH LOWS OF 5478 & 15^TH MARCH LOWS OF 5373 , YET IT LOOKS CERTAIN FOR NIFTY TO BREACH THIS LOW AROUND 5353 TO SLIDE FURTHER DOWN TO TEST THE MAKE OR BREAK SUPPORT LINE AROUND 5303 TO 5323 ZONE COMING FROM THE FEBRUARY LOWS OF 5177 AND 5232.

A BREACH AND CLOSE BELOW THIS MAKE OR BREAK SUPPORT LINE AROUND THE NIFTY ZONE OF 5303 TO 5323 WILL TRIGGER THE BREACH OF THE NECK LINE OF THE DOUBLE HEAD FORMATION MADE BY NIFTY WITH TWIN HIGHS AT 5599 ON 18^TH FEB & 5608 ON 4^TH MARCH . SO, IF INDIAN MARKETS HAVE TO SURVIVE THEN THIS MAKE OR BREAK SUPPORT LINE AROUND 5300 TO 5320 HAS TO BE PROTECTED BY THE BULLS FAILING WHICH FEBRUARY LOWS OF 5232 FOLLOWED BY 5177 WILL ONLY ACT AS DRINKS BREAKS FOR THE OVERWHELMED BEARS TO TAKE NIFTY TOWARDS PSYCHOLOGICAL 5000 FOLLOWED BY 4800 IN NEXT FEW WEEKS. THE WAY THINGS ARE SHAPING UP ONE AFTER THE OTHER , UNLESS BULLS UNITE AND TAKE SOLID REARGUARD ACTION TO PREVENT NIFTY FROM BREACHING 5353 INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY THE ALL IMPORTANT ZONE BETWEEN 5323 TO 5303, ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FEBRUARY LOWS OF 5252 & 5177 BEING BREACHED BY NIFTY BEFORE THE EXPIRY ON 31^ST MARCH TO OBEY THE DIRECTIONS SHOWN BY THE MONTHLY BEARISH ENGULFING CANDLE OF JANUARY 2011.

NEGATIVE NEWS ONE AFTER THE OTHER EMANATING IN THE FORM OF DUBAI DEBACLE, EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN DEBT, GREECE, EGYPT, LIBYA, BAHRAIN, SOUTH ARABIA & TO TOP IT UP THE JAPANESE DISASTER DO NOT SPEAK WELL OF THE STOCK MARKET CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM AND AS FAR AS INDIAN MARKETS ARE CONCERNED THESE EXTERNAL DAMPENERS COUPLED WITH THE INTERNAL POLITICAL CRISES ARISING OUT OF WIKILEAKS, 2G SCAM & PLANTED STORIES ON INDEX HEAVIES LIKE RELIANCE D- 6 GAS MYSTERY THAT HAS BEEN REPEATED ALMOST EVERY MONTH AFTER EVERY RISE IN RELIANCE  SHARE TIPS FREE TRIAL PRICES, ARE CLEAR POINTERS TO A SUBDUED MARKET CONDITION IN COMING DAYS . MOST LIKELY MARCH MONTH COULD SEE FEBRUARY MONTH LOWS OF 5232 & 5177 BEING BREACHED BEFORE ANY NOTICEABLE RETRACEMENT BOUNCE CAN TAKE NIFTY ABOVE THE UPPER SURESHOT MCX TIPS TRADING BAND NOW HAVING SLIPPED TOWARDS THE 5500 LEVELS.

FIBONACCI FOR FIBONACCI CALCULATIONS, WE HAVE CONFINED OUR STUDIES FROM THE LEVELS OF THE 2^ND WAVE LOWS EITHER FROM 3^RD NOV 2009 LOW OF 4540 TILL DIWALI HIGH OF 6338 OR FROM THE 13^TH JULY 2009 LOW OF 3919 TILL DIWALI HIGH OF 6338. IN THE FIRST CASE THE 61.8% RETRACEMENT COMES TILL 5227 AND 78.6 % COMES TILL 4925. IN THE FIRST CASE THE 61.8% AT 5227 HAS ALREADY BEEN BREACHED TO MAKE A NEW LOW OF 5177 AND NIFTY IN CASE BREACHES 5177 THEN IT CAN FALL TILL THE NEXT 78.6% LEVEL TILL 4925. IN CASE OF 2^ND WAVE HAVING BEEN COMPLETED AT THE 13 JULY 2009 LOW OF 3919, THEN FROM THE DIWALI HIGH OF 6338, 50% SUPPORT COMES AT 5128, 61.8% COMES TILL 4843.

THIS “C” DOWN LEG HAS COMPLETED 3 SUB WAVES AND WE ARE NOW IN THE 4^TH SUB WAVE 3, 3, 5 FLAT BETWEEN THE LOW OF 5177, HIGH OF 5599 AND LOW OF 5233 & 5608 MADE ON FRIDAY 4^TH MARCH. OUT OF THIS 3, 3, 5 FLAT 1^ST 3 UP SUB LEGS WENT FROM A LOW OF 5177 TILL THE HIGH OF 5599, THE 2^ND 3 CAME DOWN TILL FRIDAYS LOW OF 5233 AND THE FINAL UP 5 OF THE FLAT HAS EITHER BEEN COMPLETED AT THE FRIDAYS HIGH OF 5608 OR MAY TAKE NIFTY A BIT MORE AFTER WHICH IT MAY COMMENCE THE FINAL 5^TH DOWN SUB LEG OF “C” OF “ABC” ZIGZAG TOWARDS 5000 OR EVEN 4800. HOWEVER IF ONE HAS A CLOSER LOOK AT THE CHARTS OF LOWER TIME FRAMES OF 1 HOUR TILL 5 MINUTES CHARTS, IT INDICATES THAT THE “ABC” ZIGZAG IS OVER AT THE LOW OF 5177 AND THE 86.7% CORRECTION FROM THE HIGH OF 5599 TILL FRIDAYS LOW OF 5233 WAS THE RETRACEMENT TO THE UP MOVE FROM LOW OF 5177 TILL 5599 & AFTER MAKING A LOWER LOW AT 5232 FRESH UP MOVE HAS STARTED WHICH CAN ONLY BE CONFIRMED AFTER A DECISIVE CLOSE ABOVE “B” WAVE HIGH OF 6181.

The top gainers of the BSE Sensex pack were Larsen & Toubro Ltd. (Rs. 1651.90,+3.57%), Cipla Ltd. (Rs. 315.95,+3.22%), Bajaj Auto Ltd. (Rs. 1330.45,+3.05%), Tata Steel Ltd. (Rs. 578.35,+2.76%) and Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. (Rs. 568.45,+2.73%), among others.

The losers from the BSE Sensex pack were ITC Ltd. (Rs. 185.80,-1.82%), Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. (Rs. 274.05,-1.17%) and State Bank of India (Rs. 2322.05,-0.24%), among others.

On the macroeconomic front, the Planning Commission is insisting the power ministry to add more capacity this year. The power ministry has reported that it can only secure approximately 7,675 mw capacity online in the year 2011-12.

After the Indian defence ministry’s objection against two blocks in the Krishna-Godavari basin due to their presence in the ministry’s missile testing range, further offering of blocks in the basin has hit uncertainty. A senior official of the Petroleum Ministry, quoted, “The Defence Ministry did not give clearance to three (blocks) in KG Basin and one block in Orissa coast. The Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) already identified 40 blocks for NELP-X, including three blocks in the KG Basin.

The ministry might object to another three blocks, taking the total to seven.” As per the estimations of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, the prolific basin has 1,130 million metric tonnes of oil and oil-equivalent gas. But owing to defence ministry’s objection, none of the blocks were offered for auction in the recently concluded New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) bidding.

On the global markets front, the major indices in Asia closed on a mixed note. The Seoul Composite, Jakarta Composite and Hang Seng advanced by 0.76% at 2,111.50, 0.34% at 3,872.95 and 0.16% at 23,199.39, respectively. On the flipside, the Nikkei225 and Shanghai Composite declined by 0.14% at 9,607.08 and 0.04% at 2,858.38, respectively.

The European markets, which opened after the Indian market were trading on a mixed nin commodity calls ote. Key benchmark indices like – CAC 40 index was trading lower by 0.22% at 4018.81 and in Frankfurt, the DAX index was trading down by 0.12% at 7,349.36. On the flipside, the FTSE 100 advanced by 0.35% at 5,977.04.

The BSE CG index was at 13,195.16 up by 297.85 points or by 2.31%. The main gainers were Crompton Greaves Ltd. (Rs. 247.70,+3.88%), Larsen & Toubro Ltd. (Rs. 1651.90,+3.57%), Gammon India Ltd. (Rs. 103.05,+2.59%), Alstom Projects India Ltd. (Rs. 562.15,+2.24%) and Praj Industries Ltd. (Rs. 74.15,+1.78%).

The BSE Auto index was at 9,113.05 up by 123.31 points or by 1.37%. The main gainers were Ashok Leyland Ltd. (Rs. 51.15,+5.25%), Bajaj Auto Ltd. (Rs. 1330.45,+3.05%), Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. (Rs. 690.70,+2.07%), Tata Motors Ltd. (Rs. 1168.80,+1.27%) and Hero Honda Motors Ltd. (Rs. 1808.15,+0.78%).

On the corporate front, shares of Larsen & Toubro Ltd gained by 3.57% to Rs. 1,651.90 following reports that the company has received an offshore process platform contract from Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC) worth Rs. 1,450 crore.

Pepper June delivery dropped Rs 201 and settled at Rs 30177/quintal on profit booking at the weekend though the tight supply situation in spot market checked the downfall. Supplies have been weak in the spot market because of almost stagnant production since last three-four years. Farmers have held back their produce on hopes of better prices. A restricted supply position is likely to keep pepper prices firm.

Domestic pepper production this year is expected to be down because of unseasonal rain during October-December that affected the yield of pepper vines. Pepper arrivals in Kochi Mandi increased to 340 quintals as on 13th May 2011 from 230 quintals, meanwhile offtakes also jumped to 310 quintals from 200 quintals. Spot pepper dropped -255.2 rupees to 29373.35 rupees per 100 kg in Kochi market. The contract touched the intraday high of Rs 30383/quintal while low of Rs 29711/quintal. Now support for the pepper is seen at 29798 and below could see a test of 29418. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 30470, a move above could see prices testing 30762.

Trading Ideas:

Pepper trading range is 29418-30762.

Pepper dropped on profit booking though the tight supply situation in spot market checked the downfall

Pepper looks to test support at 29798 and resistance is seen at 30470.

NCDEX accredited warehouses pepper stocks rose by 5 tonnes to 3216 tonnes.

Spot pepper dropped -255.2 rupees to 29373.35 rupees per 100 kg in Kochi market.

Menthaoil May contract dropped Rs 12.9 and settled at Rs 923.2 due to weak spot market. The total arrivals of mentha oil in all the major mandies were reported steady at around 200 drums over. On May 12th, total stock of mentha oil at MCX-monitored warehouses at Chandausi was 50,016 kg of which 24,467 kg is physical stock and 25,549 is the demat stock.

At Barabanki, the total stock was 1,61,957 kg of which, physical stock accounted for 45,403 and demat stock was 1,16,554 kg. The contract made intraday low of Rs 921.5 a kg and high of Rs 953.9 a kg with the volume of 237 and total open interest for the same contact was at 436.Now support for the menthol is seen at 911.8 and below could see a test of 900.5. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 944.2, a move above could see prices testing 965.3.

Trading Ideas:

Menthaoil trading range is 900.5-965.

Menthaoil spot is at 1025/-.Spot market is down by Rs.10/-.

Menthaoil dropped due to weak spot market

Menthaoil looks to take support at 911.80 and resistance at 944.20.

On May 12th, total stock of mentha oil at MCX warehouses at Chandausi was 50,016 kg

Soyabean yesterday we have seen that market has moved -0.4% getting pressure from slumping demand, with slower exports and a drop in domestic use adding to defensive tone. The Brazil soybean crop is projected at 72.5 million tons, down 0.5 million from the projected record 2010/11 crop. A 3 percent increase in harvested area is more than offset by a return to trend yields. China soybean production is projected at 14.8 million tons, down 0.4 million from 2010/11 due to lower area and yields.

At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 4 Rs to 2341Re 100 kgs. Market has opened at 2384 & made a low of 2370 versus the day high of 2398. The total volume for the day was at 28340 lots and the open interest was at 165890.Support for soyabean is at 2371 below that could see a test of 2357. Resistance is now seen at 2399 above that could see a resistance of 2413.

Trading Ideas:

Soyabean trading range is 2357-2413.

Soyabean ended down getting pressure from slumping demand

Soyabean is taking resistance at 2399 and support is seen at 2371.

China soybean production is projected at 14.8 million tons, down 0.4 million from 2010/11

At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 4 Rs to 2341Re 100 kgs.

Chana dropped Rs 8 and settled at Rs 2456 per quintal due to profit booking however declining arrivals in spot markets limited the downside. Peak arrival period in chana is almost over and now we expect chana prices to move up as demand is also likely to pick up in the near future. Production of chana, or chickpea, in the current season is likely to fall to 7.37 million tonnes from 7.48 million tonnes a year ago.

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The tech rich Nasdaq outperformed its counterparts during the past two sessions taking assistance from large-cap tech issues such as Intel (INTC 21.46, +0.05), Apple (AAPL 350.70, +8.29) and Qualcomm (QCOM 56.94, +1.67).

On the economic front, data were disappointing but had no impact on the gains. Initial jobless claims for the week ended April 16 stood at 403,000, above the expected 390,000 claims. Week over week, initial claims came down by 13,000 and continuing claims decreased by 7,000 week over week to 3.70 million.

In the major indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed with a gain of 52.45 points or 0.42% at 12,505.99 while NASDAQ index finished higher by 17.65 points or 0.63% to 2,820.16. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed up by 7.02 points or 0.53% to 1,337.38.

The FIIs on Thursday stood as net buyer in equity and debt. Gross equity purchased stood at Rs. 2543.70 Crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs. 1259.10 Crore, while the gross equity sold stood at Rs. 2080.80 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs. 1074.40 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity and debt reported were Rs. 462.90 Crore and Rs. 184.70 Crore.

Top traded Volumes on NSE Nifty – Jaiprakash Associates Ltd. 10757164, ITC Ltd. 9487361, Hindalco Industries Ltd. 8777639, Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. 8666984, Cairn India Ltd. 6242239.

On BSE, total number of shares traded was 29.48 Crore and total turnover stood at Rs. 3603.63 Crore. On NSE, total number of shares traded was 65.33 Crore and total turnover stood at Rs. 13415.71 Crore.

On NSE Future and Options, total number of contracts traded in index futures was 485232 with a total turnover of Rs. 13442.48 Crore. Along with this total number of contracts traded in stock futures were 829277 with a total turnover of Rs. 23504.73 Crore.

Total numbers of contracts for index options were 3522285 with a total turnover of Rs. 103685.94 Crore. and total numbers of contracts for stock options were 199839 with a total turnover of Rs. 6122.09 Crore.

The domestic bourses ended the first trading session of the week on a downbeat note as the benchmark indices closed in the negative terrain after hovering across the baseline throughout the session. During the morning trade, the Asian stocks traded higher as Credit Suisse Group AG improved its share-price estimate for Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.

Further, the Japanese market traded up following reports that cost of Fukushima nuclear accident will be shared by other utilities along with Tokyo Electric Power Co. However, the Chinese stocks dropped after rising oil prices fuelled concerns that inflation will rise and lead to more policy tightening measures.

Soon after opening in the negative, the benchmark indices surged above the neutral line tracking the positive Asian cues. The US market closed higher on Friday which also boosted the morning sentiment. However, as the day progressed, the market turned volatile and the benchmarks see-sawed across the unchanged zone.

A bout of selling came in during the final hour of trade and the benchmarks were dragged in the negative terrain and finally closed with mild losses. Sensex heavyweight Reliance Industries plunged by 2.97% during today’s trade. The positive opening for the European bourses had failed to make any impact in the domestic arena.

In the sectoral front, the Oil&Gas and Realty space took the major hit, declining by 1.75% and 1.18%, respectively. However, the Consumer Durables sector traded strong, gaining by 0.92%. Both the Nifty and Sensex witnessed extreme volatility throughout the session and finally closed with marginal losses.

The positive closing for the overnight US market had limited impact on the domestic stocks during morning trade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed with a gain of 52.45 points or 0.42% at 12,505.99 while NASDAQ index finished higher by 17.65 points or 0.63% to 2,820.16. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed up by 7.02 points or 0.53% to 1,337.38.

Among the Sensex pack, 18 stocks ended in negative while 12 stocks ended in the positive terrain. The overall market breadth also remained weak, as out of total 3,001 stocks traded on BSE, 1,558 stocks declined, whereas 1,340 stocks advanced and 103 stocks remained unchanged.

The BSE Sensex closed at 19,584.31 down by 17.92 points or by 0.09% and NSE Nifty closed at 5,874.50, lower by 10.20 points or by 0.17%. The BSE Midcap was at 7,241.58 higher by 6.25 points or by 0.09% and the BSE SmallCap closed at 8,899.90, up by 21.33 points or by 0.24%. The NSE Nifty touched intraday high of 5,906.60 and intraday low of 5,857.00.

The top gainers of the BSE Sensex pack were Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. (Rs. 186.40, 4.40%), State Bank of India (Rs. 2919.35, 2.06%), Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. (Rs. 1326.55, 1.53%), Infosys Technologies Ltd. (Rs. 2942.15, 1.13%) and Larsen & Toubro Ltd. (Rs. 1721.50, 1.03%), among others.

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